F-Gas-Emissions 2004/2005 and Uncertainty Assessment of German Data

F-Gas-Emissions 2004/2005 and Uncertainty Assessment of German Data (ZSE)

Data on HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 for the national emissions reporting under the Framework Convention on Climate Change for the reporting years 2004 and 2005 

Germany 2007

Summary

The German Environmental Agency has installed the Centralised System of Emissions (ZSE) to satisfy the requirements of international greenhouse gas reporting pursuant to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This study presents the 2004 and 2005 emissions data on the fluorinated greenhouse gases HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 (F-gases) to be entered into the ZSE.

Section I of the first part of this report shows the F-gas emissions data for 2004 and 2005, in addition to those on 1995, 2000 and 2003.

In 1995-2005, the emissions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 have doubled from 3,234 to 6,425 metric tons - slightly decreasing as of 2003. Unlike metric tons, the CO2 equivalent of these emissions have slightly decreased over the same time period, from 15.46 to 15.19 million t CO2 equivalent. Global warming emissions, however, have increased from 2003 onwards by almost 1.5 million t CO2 equivalent. Behind these trends there are different tendencies that make it necessary to look separately at the three gas categories.

PFC emissions have continuously been dropping over the whole time period from 1995. SF6 emissions have also decreased significantly from 1995; from 2003, however, they are rising again. Over the 1995-2005 periods, total HFC emissions have increased sharply in metric tons, from 2,670 to 6,121 tons. In terms of global warming (CO2 equivalent) the rise was much slower - from 6.5 to 9.6 million t CO2 equivalent. On the one hand, emissions of HFCs that have been specifically used as CFC substitutes have increased steeply; on the other hand, Chemical Industry succeeded in significantly reducing the unintended by-product emissions of the potent greenhouse gas HFC-23 associated with the production of HCFC-22. The HFC-23 emissions have been lowered from 4 million t CO2 equivalent to less than 0.5 million t, since 1995, so that the overall rise of global warming HFC emissions could be decelerated. In 2004 and 2005, the HFC-23 emissions were not reduced further.

HFCs 1995-2005

Summarizing the ten years following the 1995 CFC ban, one can say that from the formerly six big application fields of ozone-depleting substances (ODS), namely refrigeration, air conditioning, hard foam, solvents, fire distinguishers, and aerosols only refrigeration and air conditioning are the sectors where the transition from ODS to HFCs has run and is still running smoothly (solitary exemption is the 1994 changeover from CFCs to natural refrigerants in household refrigerators). In the other former ODS sectors, climate-friendly alternatives became accepted so widely that HFCs play only a minor role. In refrigeration and stationary air conditioning, HFC emissions are overtaking those of the former CFCs/HCFCs in terms of mass. In mobile application, particularly in air conditioning of passenger cars, HFC emissions superseded that of the preceding ODS long ago even in terms of global warming.

PFCs 1995-2005

Thanks the efforts of the aluminium industry, overall emissions of PFCs have been reduced continuously from 1995. The reduction in emissions results from closures of smelting works as well as from drastic modernisation of the remaining smelters. PFC emissions from semiconductor manufacturing have not increased significantly in spite of the sharp growth in production and output.

SF₆ 1995-2005

SF6 emissions have been reduced in the 1995-2005 period from 303 to 204 t metric tons (7.2 to 4.9 million t CO2 equivalent. A closer look reveals that both in 2004 and in 2005 emissions increased against the previous years. Emissions from car tyres and from electrical switch gear including components kept on dropping. This reduction was compensated by a slight rise in emissions from magnesium casting, photo voltaic manufacturing, and sound proof windows (the latter emissions will go on rising until 2020 because of decommissioning of old windows installed 25 years before). The main reason for increased emissions was aluminium casting where the expansion in SF6 use perpetuated also in 2004 and 2005. (It is still unproven that SF6 is destructed on application to the greatest extent, so that consumption is equated with emissions until further notice.

In section II of the first part of this report the data sources of the 2004 and 2005 survey are documented, and section III presents the F-gas emissions 1995 - 2005 in detailed tables, by individual sectors.

Second part. Estimates of uncertainties associated with the annual emissions data are an essential element of the emission inventories required by the Framework Convention on Climate Change as well as the ZSE. This study quantifies the uncertainties as relative deviations from the input values of the ZSE. The input value is always 1, and its upward and downward deviations are fractions of 1. The uncertainty assessment of complex activity data and emission factors complies with the mode of calculation required by the 1999 and 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. The argumentation is mostly based on expert judgements given either by external sector sectors or by experts from Öko-Recherche. Where empirical studies are available, statistical standard methods could be used for uncertainty assessments. Uncertainty analysis is carried out in all the 37 application sectors of fluorinated greenhouse gases.